Welcome to 2025 and The Alternative Era
Where bitcoin revitalizes economies, health improves, truth is rewarded, investments are less risky, regulators are more just, where retirement dreams are fulfilled, and where choices are abound
For well over a decade, I’ve been welcoming each new year with an article that debuts a fresh list of predictions and the assessment of my previous ones.
In all my years of practicing this fine art of crystal-gazing, I have never felt more hopeful about the future and the promise of decentralized innovation.
2024 began with a few Decentralist wins against rogue regulators, but it ended with some of the most glorious victories of all time - assuring that a fascist Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) will not see the light of day in the United States of America anytime soon, and that Gary Gensler will no longer have the ability to continue stonewalling the very innovation needed to foster economic prosperity and narrow the national wealth gap. See: Recap of Last Week's Battles in the War Between the Centralists and Decentralists
Thanks to these triumphs, I feel more optimistic than ever that, after a 5-year derailment, the two-thousand twenties will roar as was prophesied in January 2020. See: How 2019 FinTech Trends May Have Laid the Groundwork for Another Roaring Twenties and Recap of 2020 Bizarro World and Some Really Bold Investment Predictions for 2021.
While I have made a number of accurate financial predictions over the years, I have often shied away from committing to price targets - that is until last year when I predicted that bitcoin, then trading in the $44K range, would reach $120,000 in 2024.
After scaling to $106,147 in 2024, bitcoin fell just short of my $120,000 target. As much as I would have loved to have had the bragging rights, I believe that bitcoin is just weeks away from hitting my mark. I predict that, in 2025, bitcoin will far surpass $120,000. And, with Trump’s vow to establish a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve, its longer-term outlook is even more auspicious - especially with other nations likely to follow suit. In fact, I can envision a day when a $120,000 drop in the price of bitcoin will be barely discernable on a chart. That is how high bitcoin can ultimately soar in non-hostile regulatory climates.
2024 was also a year that saw some of the most notorious crypto antagonists exiting the public square with their tails between their legs. This brings me to my most precise forecast of 2024.
Last year I predicted that media hacks, like Paul Krugman, would spend the election year desperately trying to paint a picture of a booming economy - even as credit card debt rose to record levels and over a million more Americans fell into poverty. In addition to his column in the NY Times, Krugman’s 2024 X feed is filled with tone-deaf rants glorifying a flagging economy and literally mocking those in financial despair.
But you can forget about giving Krugman a piece of your mind as he has since disabled the comment feature on his X feed. I guess when you are a Nobel laureate, reading the room is beneath you - as is acknowledging lapses in judgment like declaring that the internet’s impact on the economy will be no greater than that of the fax machine’s, or like lambasting an appreciating bitcoin as the dollar hemorrhages purchasing power.
Since the day when Krugman predicted that “blockchain would die and bitcoin would collapse,” the cryptocurrency market has grown over 2,500% with bitcoin soaring over 1,200%. Meanwhile, during that same timeframe, the dollar had lost over 25% in purchasing power.
Fortunately, readers of the NY Times need not worry any longer about making poor financial decisions based on Krugman’s unsound economic convictions as the erroneous oracle retired his pen a few weeks ago.
Speaking of term limits retirement, this brings me to my 2024 prediction that Elizabeth Warren would lose her Senate seat to a pro-crypto candidate.
Cryptocurrency activist and attorney John Deaton certainly gave Warren a run for her money - exposing her for stifling the innovation that she so clearly doesn’t comprehend, and for neglecting to question Gary Gensler about his private meetings with disgraced FTX founder San Bankman-Fried. However, at the end of the day, Warren held on to her seat.
In hindsight, instead of Warren, I wish I would have gone with predicting that big-bank crusader Sherrod Brown would lose his re-election. I would have had much better odds with Ohio than with Massachusetts, the state known - and often ridiculed - for banning its residents from participating in the IPO of the most valuable U.S. company of all time, Apple. You can click here if you would like to read more about why certain politicians decree outperforming assets, like bitcoin, and hot IPOs, like Apple, as hazardous while deeming the devaluating dollar and ebbing Treasuries as “risk free.”
Fortunately, with folks like Gensler, Brown and Krugman put out to pasture, archaic pro-centralist voices that pander to legacy industries have become the minority - paving the way for their worn-out defective theories to be replaced with alternative solutions that actually work.
And the timing could not be more pivotal as America no longer has the luxury of wasting time trying to solve problems with the same ideologies that created them.
This is the perfect segue into my 2025 predictions…
2025 WILL IGNITE THE ALTERNATIVE ERA
Traditional industry titans that have, for the last century, dictated our diet, our healthcare options, our news and entertainment and, of course, our investment choices are on the cusp of epic displacement. Instead, the alternative fraction of every industry will rise and reign, thanks to decentralized innovation.
Granted, I have been predicting the decentralization and democratization of every industry for quite some time (see: Decentralization will Shape the Future of Humanity and 2022 Predictions So Obvious They Should be Called, Certitudes). However, it is the shift in political winds that will now make decentralization an unstoppable reality and the alternative world open for business.
Alternative Health
Holistic remedies will no longer play second fiddle to prescription drugs simply because pharmaceutical companies have more lobbying dollars. Holistics will soon be affordable to all through modern types of healthcare coverage, made possible by decentralized innovation.
Food will be healthier not only because harmful ingredients - which are banned in most parts of the world except for the U.S. - will finally be removed from supermarket shelves, but because individuals will be economically incentivized to consume healthier foods.
The emergence of web3 platforms, such as Fruits of the Amazon, which will compensate users for learning how biodiversity prevents illnesses and ensures a cleaner environment, will soon enable individuals, across the planet, to monetize a much more wholesome lifestyle.
Mahatma Gandhi, who once said, “it is health that is real wealth and not pieces of gold and silver,” never envisioned the emergence of a technology that could simultaneously deliver both.
Alternative Media
Just like AltHealth, AltMedia will not be playing second string to conventional media anymore. Instead, web3 media will ensure that we-the-people are accorded a louder voice and a more honest accounting of current events. Most transformatively, web3 media will make certain that whether individuals are creating or consuming content, they are compensated by receiving a piece of the ad revenue action.
I realize that it may be difficult, right now, to imagine a world that rewards truth instead of suppressing it, but I promise you that day is coming.
Alternative Finance
Anyone who still thinks that alternative finance is not the future of finance has not been paying attention for the last decade and a half. In fact, we’ve reached the point in humanity’s timeline where alternative finance can simply be called “finance.”
Innovation is fueling an endlessly proliferating universe of alternative assets. Not only is this unleashing the greatest diversification opportunity in the history of mankind, innate to many of these novel investment products will be exceptionally high Sharpe Ratios, enabling investors to take far less risk for much greater returns.
You are going to start to see modern investment products utterly defy conventional risk/reward paradigms.
Even venture capital investing will become less risky with the development of innovative venture financing structures, like Income Venture Units, that have the backing of real-world assets and pay quarterly dividends. Products such as this will finally enable start-ups to attract the funding needed to innovate, expand, create jobs and drive economic growth - all while mitigating capital losses.
The alternative future also brings many more ways for investors - even the more risk averse investor - to include cryptocurrencies in their portfolios.
Products like Bitcoin bonds (bonds issued by entities to purchase bitcoin) as well as crypto mining equipment leasing have emerged to provide indirect exposure to cryptocurrencies while satisfying those who seek fixed income.
I remain more confident than ever that asset tokenization will bring an unprecedented opportunity for individuals to not only hedge their portfolios with a growing number of non-correlated assets, but they will also be able to monetize their existing physical possessions. See: Get Ready to Protect Your Investment Portfolios with Tokenized Collectibles.
Most of the non-correlated alternative assets referenced above will be appreciating in alternative retirement vehicles. In fact, much like the 401k emerged from the most unexpected place (a tax loophole), expect an alternate retirement vehicle to similarly surface that not only transforms how tomorrow’s retirements are funded, but also guarantees that they are indeed well capitalized without taxpayer subsidies or eating into corporate profits.
And, don’t be surprised if this new nonconventional retirement vehicle becomes known as the “REdefined Contribution Plan” because of the way in which it reconceives the match contribution system. Most significantly, don’t underestimate the REdefined Contribution Plan’s ability to fuel unprecedented economic prosperity.
This retirement solution is big - likely as big as or if not bigger than the advent of the assembly line. I will refrain from stating anything more at this time, but you can expect details to be published in the very near future.
The Epic Impact of the Alternative Realignment
The shift to the alternative world will have epic implications causing many traditional players to either adapt or perish.
While less nimble legacy business will be able to merge to avoid bankruptcy, existent regulators will have a much more challenging time acclimating to the alternative world.
Existing self-regulatory organizations (SROs) will be forced to become more knowledgeable about modern assets as well as more inclusive so as to ensure that the alternative fraction of finance is appropriately represented. Otherwise, alternative SROs, more proficient in fintech and digital assets, will emerge to support a rapidly evolving financial services industry. When it comes down to it, an SRO without the “S” is not an SRO at all. Instead, it is nothing more than an incognizant competitor with unrestrained regulatory power.
The egregious leadership imbalance in today’s most known securities’ SRO will no longer be tolerated. The existing setup not only disenfranchises fintech businesses, but it also keeps financial advisors from fulfilling their fiduciary responsibilities and prevents retail investors from achieving better risk-adjusted returns.
I implore you to take a look at the licensing exams presently given to members of the securities community. The dearth of educational content related to digital assets and fintech is embarrassing. Now, if the objective is to keep financial advisors in the dark about modern asset classes, then, indeed, the existing exams serve their purpose. However, if America’s capital markets are to remain the envy of the world, then it needs to bring its financial services industry into the 21st century. And that simply cannot be accomplished without providing registered representatives and investors, at large, with greater knowledge of contemporary investment products and strategies.
The SROs are not the only regulatory bodies in grave need of reform. The Securities & Exchange Commission, itself, has become one of the worst offenders of financial injustice. Particularly in recent years, the SEC has been grossly abusing its qualification and enforcement powers to pick winners and losers. And, instead of protecting investors, the SEC uses its unconstitutional accredited investor rule to prevent the masses from capitalizing on innovation. These actions have stymied economic growth and helped exacerbate the national wealth gap.
America can no longer afford to have a rogue regulator allocating the bulk of its taxpayer budget to frivolous enforcement actions while its corporate finance department struggles to qualify offerings and issue comment letters out on time. Nor can the nation continue to marginalize its citizens of lesser means.
Enforcement actions for minor infractions have become a flagrant waste of taxpayer dollars. This is money that should have been allocated to economically accretive initiatives such as creating a regulatory framework for digital assets and allowing more innovative companies to participate in the public markets.
The SEC can immediately be made infinitely more efficient simply by swapping its enforcement and corporate finance budgets. Perhaps this is something that can be accomplished under the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
As far as the accredited investor rule is concerned, hope is on the horizon. Investor Choice Advocates Network (ICAN), a nonprofit public interest litigation organization, dedicated to breaking down barriers to entry to capital markets, is doing tremendous work in fighting to reform the unjust accredited investor rule. ICAN is presently seeking a judicial order compelling the SEC to respond - after over two years of absolute silence - to ICAN’s 2022 petition, urging the agency to modernize its definition of an accredited investor. See ICAN's Fight to Reform the Accredited Investor Rule.
On the legislative front, Senator Tim Scott recently introduced a bill that would expand the accredited investor definition through the creation of a retail-centric qualification exam, thereby increasing opportunities for everyday investors to build wealth and for American businesses to access new sources of capital.
I expect both of these initiatives to finally bring the constitutionality of the accredited investor rule to the forefront of national debate in 2025.
Until there is widespread discourse, most Americans will never realize how the discriminatory accredited investor rule restricts their business financing, diminishes their investment returns, undermines their retirement plans, raises unemployment and thwarts economic growth.
Equally essential as open dialogue is the matter of choice. And what is choice if not an alternative between two or more options.
So, for those who, for whatever reason, fear the arrival of the alternative era, it is important to understand that no one is forcing alternative products on anyone. Instead, people will merely have the opportunity to make their own choices.
They will have the ability to choose between natural remedies or the synthetic drugs which come with a list of side effects more harrowing than the ailment itself.
They will have the ability to choose to eat a more wholesome cuisine, or they can opt for the lab-made processed foods - some of which presently contain the identical chemicals used to produce cleaning supplies, batteries and glue.
They will have the ability to choose to view the video footage captured by firsthand eyewitnesses, uploaded to a decentralized media platform, or they can choose to watch scripted segments (most sponsored by big pharma), filmed in a controlled studio, featuring paid journalists relaying their version of a current event.
They will have the ability to choose to diversify their retirement portfolios with non-correlated assets from an ever-expanding and continuously improving product universe, or they can choose to confine their investments to the equities and derivatives of the select few public companies which had been cherry-picked by the government.
Finally, industries will be able to choose to be truly self-regulated by tactful tech-savvy colleagues, or they can choose to remain regulated by the very adversaries that their innovation continues to disrupt.
Welcome to 2025 and the alternative era - where everyone will get the future they choose.